Overstocked and Out of Stock at the Same Time

Overstocked and Out of Stock at the Same Time

It is one of the most common contradictions in operations.

The warehouse is full, but a critical part still had to be expedited this week.

Cash is tied up in slow-moving inventory that may sit untouched for months. At the same time, the fast-moving items that support daily production or customer orders keep dropping dangerously close to zero.

The problem is not simply too much inventory or too little inventory.

It is having the wrong inventory in the wrong quantities.

In many operations, both symptoms can be traced back to the same source: inventory reorder points that were configured when the ERP or WMS first went live and have barely changed since.

The settings may have been accurate at the time.

Then demand patterns shifted. Supplier lead times changed. New customers were added. Product lines expanded. Order quantities became less predictable. Some items became more important, while others gradually stopped moving.

The operation changed, but the reorder logic did not.

Static inventory settings are being asked to manage a dynamic business. The gap is then covered with expedited freight, urgent supplier calls, excess safety stock, and eventual write-offs.

A Full Warehouse Does Not Mean You Have the Right Inventory

Inventory levels are often discussed as a single number.

Management may track total inventory value, warehouse utilisation, or days of inventory on hand. Those metrics are useful, but they can hide what is happening at the SKU level.

A warehouse can appear well stocked while still being unable to support current demand.

You may have months of supply for items that rarely move and only a few days of supply for the parts customers are actively ordering. The total inventory value looks high, but operational availability remains poor.

That is why stockouts and excess inventory often exist at the same time.

One creates visible disruption. A missing part delays production, blocks an order, or triggers an expensive expedite.

The other is quieter. Slow-moving stock takes up warehouse space, consumes working capital, increases handling costs, and eventually becomes obsolete.

Because stockouts create immediate noise, teams often respond by adding more inventory.

Safety stock is increased. Buyers place larger orders. Supervisors request extra quantities “just in case.”

This may reduce the risk for one item, but it does not fix the underlying reorder logic. Over time, the warehouse becomes fuller without becoming more reliable.

Your Inventory Reorder Points Were Probably Right Once

Most ERP and WMS platforms include fields for minimum quantities, maximum quantities, safety stock, economic order quantities, and reorder points.

The problem is not that these fields do not exist.

The problem is that the values inside them are often treated as permanent.

In many companies, inventory reorder points are established during implementation using historical demand, supplier estimates, and assumptions about how the business will operate.

Once the system goes live, those values may remain unchanged for years.

Meanwhile, the inputs used to calculate them continue moving.

A supplier that once delivered in seven days now takes three weeks. A part that used to sell twice a month is now required every day. Another item that once supported a major customer has barely moved since the contract ended.

Seasonality may have changed. Product substitutions may have been introduced. Supplier minimum order quantities may have increased. Production schedules may now require different batch sizes.

Even small changes compound over time.

A reorder point that is slightly too low creates repeated stockouts. A setting that is slightly too high keeps generating purchase orders long after demand has slowed.

The system is following its rules correctly. The rules are simply outdated.

Why Nobody Updates the Settings

In theory, the solution sounds simple.

Review consumption history, update lead times, calculate new safety stock, adjust the inventory reorder points, and repeat the process every quarter.

In practice, very few teams do this consistently.

The work is repetitive, time-consuming, and spread across multiple systems.

A planner or buyer may need to export transaction history, remove unusual orders, check open purchase orders, confirm actual supplier lead times, review demand variability, and identify whether a spike represents real growth or a one-time event.

That work has to be repeated across hundreds or thousands of SKUs.

Then the updated values must be reviewed and entered back into the ERP or WMS.

This is not purely an arithmetic task. It requires judgement.

A system may show that demand increased, but a buyer may know it came from a one-time project. A lead time may appear longer, but the delay may have been caused by a temporary port issue. A part may have low consumption, but it could still be critical because production cannot continue without it.

This combination of analysis, judgement, and manual system updates makes the process easy to postpone.

A busy week becomes a busy month. The quarterly review becomes an annual exercise. Eventually, nobody can remember when the settings were last validated.

So the reorder logic remains where it was last left.

Better Reorder Logic Does Not Require a New WMS

Many companies assume that fixing inventory planning requires replacing the ERP or implementing a new warehouse management system.

In most cases, it does not.

The system of record may already contain the data needed to improve replenishment. What is missing is a practical layer that continuously evaluates how inventory is actually moving.

A lightweight inventory management workflow can sit alongside the existing ERP or WMS and monitor consumption, supplier lead times, open orders, stock levels, and demand patterns.

It can then recalculate recommended inventory reorder points as conditions change.

Instead of waiting for an item to reach zero, the system can identify that the current setting is no longer sufficient. It can flag a fast-moving item whose demand is accelerating, or a supplier whose delivery performance has gradually deteriorated.

It can also identify the opposite problem.

If an item has stopped moving but the ERP continues generating replenishment orders, the workflow can recommend reducing the minimum level, pausing purchases, or reviewing the item for obsolescence.

The objective is not to automate every purchase decision.

The objective is to ensure that buyers are working from current information.

Recommended orders can be drafted and sent into the ERP for approval. Buyers remain responsible for confirming quantities, reviewing commercial considerations, and deciding when an exception requires a different approach.

The system handles the repetitive analysis. The buyer handles the judgement.

Replenishment Should Be a Continuous Process

Traditional inventory reviews often happen as periodic cleanup exercises.

A team may review min/max levels once a quarter, identify a list of obvious problems, make a few updates, and then return to daily operations.

The improvement fades because the underlying conditions continue changing.

A better model is continuous correction.

Inventory reorder points should adjust as demand, variability, and supplier performance move. Small updates made regularly are more useful than a major review performed once or twice a year.

This changes how the buying team spends its time.

Instead of recalculating settings manually, buyers can focus on exceptions.

Which supplier is becoming unreliable?

Which part has become more important than its current classification suggests?

Which demand increase is likely to continue?

Which slow-moving item is still required for service obligations?

These are decisions where human experience adds value.

Calculating average consumption, measuring lead-time variation, and comparing available stock against projected demand are tasks that software can perform continuously.

When the process is designed correctly, replenishment becomes quieter.

There are fewer emergency purchase orders, fewer surprise stockouts, and fewer pallets arriving simply because an old system setting triggered another order.

Where AI Can Help

Artificial intelligence can improve inventory planning when it is used to recognise patterns that are difficult to maintain through static rules.

It can analyse demand history, supplier performance, order frequency, seasonality, and unusual consumption changes across large numbers of items.

It can also help distinguish between recurring demand and one-time events.

For example, a sudden increase in usage may indicate genuine growth, a temporary project, or an incorrect transaction. The system can flag the pattern and provide the buyer with the supporting history rather than automatically assuming that every increase should change the reorder point.

AI can also support exception management.

Instead of asking a buyer to review every SKU, the tool can highlight the items where current inventory reorder points no longer match actual behaviour.

These may include fast movers approaching a stockout, items with increasing lead times, products accumulating excess stock, or parts with no recent consumption but active purchase orders.

The final decision should remain with the buyer or planner.

Inventory data rarely tells the entire story. Customer commitments, supplier relationships, future product changes, and service requirements may justify carrying more or less stock than the model recommends.

The technology should improve visibility and reduce manual analysis. It should not remove operational judgement.

Start With the Items That Matter Most

Do not begin by trying to correct every item in the warehouse.

Start with your A items.

These are usually the relatively small number of SKUs that drive most of your volume, revenue, or production activity.

Pull the consumption history, current stock, supplier lead times, open purchase orders, and existing inventory reorder points for those items.

Then ask a few basic questions.

When were the settings last updated?

Do the lead times in the system match actual supplier performance?

Are the fastest-moving items repeatedly being expedited?

Are there items with high stock levels and little recent consumption?

Does the buying team trust the system recommendations, or are orders regularly adjusted outside the ERP?

You do not need a perfect inventory model to find the first opportunity.

If the reorder points have not been reviewed since implementation, there is a strong chance that working capital is sitting in the wrong places.

That makes inventory planning a practical first automation project.

The outcome is also measurable.

You can track stockouts, expedited freight, excess inventory, buyer time, service levels, and working capital before and after the changes.

The goal is not simply to reduce inventory.

The goal is to hold the inventory the operation actually needs.

Show Streamliners Studio your top-moving items, current reorder settings, and recent consumption history. We will map where the logic is creating stockouts, excess stock, or both.

Book a discovery call to see what your current reorder settings may be costing.

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